Probability and Luck

If you are dealing with uncertainty, you will make your decision based on probability or luck?

All of us have faced thousands of scenarios every day. As most events will be a routine, there are novel experiences that make every day feels new. Among these scenarios, there are several problems that we could not decide directly, because due to the uncertainty.

These uncertainties are solvable if one has experienced beforehand, which is called experience. On the other hand, there is many scenarios that one could only decide based on luck, such as whether today will rain or traffic jam

Other than these minor examples, major events could influence our lives. Few of them such as the career that we choose, the school that we attend, the friend that we talk. We could not have a choice to select what we want sometimes. However, there is a moment that we could choose what we want. If there is uncertainty, should one choose it based on probability or luck?

Probability, a term that shows how likely an event will occur, could be an approach to make a decision. It is relatively straightforward to apply probability in decision-making. However, there is a common problem of probability. People will try to put a higher chance for events that appear on them more often, although there is less chance to happen.

One may have a stigma that an airplane will have a higher accident compared to a car, although the airplane is safer. The main issue is the difficulty to give a proper judgement because of the stereotype and general misconception.

Luck, a success that brought by pure chance. Luck is wishes and overrated to other people. The main issue of making a decision based on luck is the overestimation of fortune. It results in several phenomena such as the overvaluation of the stock market and continuous operation of the lottery ticket.

One may argue that probability may be better than luck for making a decision. However, one needs to think carefully for some thinking fallacies from chance and fortune. By thinking and deciding carefully, one could tackle fallacies and have a better decision in the uncertainty.

“Think carefully for probability and luck before making a decision.”

What is the common fallacy of considering probability and luck in a decision?

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